From: Liang C <lfchao@gmail.com>
Date: Sun, Nov 15, 2015 at 10:29 PM
Subject: Comment on Vallco EIR: impact on overbuilding of office space in a very short time
To: "City of Cupertino Planning Dept." planning@cupertino.org
Please
study the impact of the oversupply of office space in the long run on
housing, employment, transportation, quality of life, especially when
the infrastructure to support it cannot catch up in the short term.
------------------------------
Date: Sun, Nov 15, 2015 at 10:29 PM
Subject: Comment on Vallco EIR: impact on overbuilding of office space in a very short time
To: "City of Cupertino Planning Dept." planning@cupertino.org
RE: Comment on Vallco EIR
The Market Study done in 2014 for the GPA in fact shows only a demand of 805,428 square feet of office by the year 2035. The estimated demand for office space in Cupertino is 43,300 square feet per year. The 2,000,000 square feet is the equivalent of 46.2 years of office growth in Cupertino. Not only the proposed Hills at Vallco will devastate the traffic condition, it will kill any chance of another major corporation to settle down in Cupertino. The capacity of our traffic infrastructure is very limit since there is literally no mass transit.
The
area might be able to handle a reasonable growth of office space over
20 or 30 years. However, when 2 million square feet of office is built
before the other 2.5 million square feet of office has not even finished
construction, the accumulated impact is hard to estimate.
Please
study any other area or city that has seen such high growth rate in
office space, namely 50% growth of office space in 5 years, and compare
its impacts.
------------------------------
Market Study Does Not Support Two Million Square Feet of Office at Vallco
The Market Study done in 2014 for the GPA in fact shows only a demand of 805,428 square feet of office by the year 2035. The estimated demand for office space in Cupertino is 43,300 square feet per year. The 2,000,000 square feet is the equivalent of 46.2 years of office growth in Cupertino. Not only the proposed Hills at Vallco will devastate the traffic condition, it will kill any chance of another major corporation to settle down in Cupertino. The capacity of our traffic infrastructure is very limit since there is literally no mass transit.
During the General Plan Amendment (GPA) Process, the City of Cupertino
hired the consulting firm BAE Urban Economics to conduct a Market Study.
Like reading all such consultant reports, ordered by the City, wise
readers look at the data collected in the report and derive informed
conclusions on their own. The conclusion derived by these consultant
reports are often quite biased, and one should read it with caution. The
office demand analysis is one such example.
On Page 83 of the Market Study, it shows that the "estimated demand for office space in Cupertino averaging approximately 43,300 square feet per year. After accounting for projects currently entitled or under construction, this suggests that minimum net office demand will total approximately 156,000 square feet by 2020 and 805,400 square feet by 2035, as shown in Table 34."
ABAG projection is regarded as aggressive by many already. However, the Council directed the staff to add "2-3 million square feet of office" when the GPA process was initiated from Aug. 21, 2012 Council Meeting. Therefore, the consultants have to find a way to deliver the expected "office demand".
The Market Study argues:
Table 34 factor in the capacity to accommodate the proposed Apple Campus 2 along with another new corporate campus equivalent in scale to the recent projects shown in Table 33, in addition to the minimum demand estimates that were developed based on projected employment. As shown, this results in a net new demand of approximately 2.9 million square feet by 2020 and 3.6 million square feet by 2035. Given the recent shortage of office spaces in Cupertino containing more than 10,000 contiguous square feet, a new recommended office allocation could also allow for multi-tenant office developments, which could create the space needed for mid-size companies to grow in Cupertino as well as accommodate a new major technology company or future expansion of an existing firm.
Even if a new corporate campus is expected, Table 33 (below) shows the office square footage is mostly under 1.5 million. Even though there is only a shortage of 10,000 contiguous square feet of office, the consultants from BAE Urban Economics concluded that Cupertino has an additional office demand of 2 million square feet, which is quite a stretch. And Table 34 shows the ballooned total office demand of 3.5 million. Take away the 2 million for an non-existent corporate office. Take away the 750,000 square feet already allocated to Apple and under construction. The true office demand is only 805,428 square feet by 2035.
On Page 83 of the Market Study, it shows that the "estimated demand for office space in Cupertino averaging approximately 43,300 square feet per year. After accounting for projects currently entitled or under construction, this suggests that minimum net office demand will total approximately 156,000 square feet by 2020 and 805,400 square feet by 2035, as shown in Table 34."
ABAG projection is regarded as aggressive by many already. However, the Council directed the staff to add "2-3 million square feet of office" when the GPA process was initiated from Aug. 21, 2012 Council Meeting. Therefore, the consultants have to find a way to deliver the expected "office demand".
The Market Study argues:
Table 34 factor in the capacity to accommodate the proposed Apple Campus 2 along with another new corporate campus equivalent in scale to the recent projects shown in Table 33, in addition to the minimum demand estimates that were developed based on projected employment. As shown, this results in a net new demand of approximately 2.9 million square feet by 2020 and 3.6 million square feet by 2035. Given the recent shortage of office spaces in Cupertino containing more than 10,000 contiguous square feet, a new recommended office allocation could also allow for multi-tenant office developments, which could create the space needed for mid-size companies to grow in Cupertino as well as accommodate a new major technology company or future expansion of an existing firm.
Even if a new corporate campus is expected, Table 33 (below) shows the office square footage is mostly under 1.5 million. Even though there is only a shortage of 10,000 contiguous square feet of office, the consultants from BAE Urban Economics concluded that Cupertino has an additional office demand of 2 million square feet, which is quite a stretch. And Table 34 shows the ballooned total office demand of 3.5 million. Take away the 2 million for an non-existent corporate office. Take away the 750,000 square feet already allocated to Apple and under construction. The true office demand is only 805,428 square feet by 2035.
Besides Cupertino City Council can always initiate a new GPA process to
grant an additional 1.5 million or 2 million square feet of office space
if ever another company wants to settle down in Cupertino. There is no
need to pre-allocate it in the General Plan.
And there is certainly no way to justify giving this 2,000,000 square
feet of office to Vallco at all. A major corporation headquartered in
Cupertino brings in sales tax plus property tax and a brand name
recognition, like Apple brings to Cupertino. Yet, 2,000,000 square feet
of office at Vallco merely brings in property tax.
Two million square feet is the equivalent of 46.2 years of office growth
in Cupertino. (2,000,000/43,300=46.2) All cramed in one location within
one block from the 3.5 million square feet of office in Apple Campus 2,
which include 750,000 extra square feet on top of the original
allocation for HP. That's another 17.3 years of office growth.
(750,000/43,300=17.3)
More than 60 years of office growth all squeezed into one block area to
be built within the next 5 years. Will Cupertino ever have the capacity
for another major corporation in the near future? Not likely.
The capacity of the traffic infrastructure is limited in Cupertino since
there is no true mass transit. VTA doesn't have any plan in the next 25
years to introduce light rail or any other transit that can transport
tens thousands of people. Therefore, the amount of office space that
Cupertino can accommodate is also limited since Cupertino already has
insufficient housing.
Allocating 2,000,000 square feet office to Vallco is essentially
grabbing the space from other property owners in town, whose properties
are already zoned for office. These other property owners won't even be
able to build a small amount of office as a result since roads leading
into Cupertino would be extremely congested. It is simply not fair to
other property owners.
REFERENCE:
- City of Cupertino GPA Market Study, prepared by BAE Urban Economics, Feb. 13, 2014
- Job Growth Projection Chart, BetterCupertion Blog We Support Sensible Growth, Planned Growth
CRSZaction.org and BetterCupertino.org
Paid for by Cupertino Residents for Sensible Zoning Action Committee, PO Box 1132, Cupertino, CA 95015, FPPC #1376003
Paid for by Cupertino Residents for Sensible Zoning Action Committee, PO Box 1132, Cupertino, CA 95015, FPPC #1376003
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